"To this add defiance, & tell him, for conclusion, he hath betrayed his followers."

Despite the media's lack of interest, the story from Iran is far from over. As Michael Ledeen has stated, this is a struggle to the death between the Ayatollah and those who have risen-up to oppose him:

The most important group of religious leaders in Iran called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate on Saturday, an act of defiance against the country’s supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country’s clerical establishment.

A statement by the group, the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum, represents a significant, if so far symbolic, setback for the government and especially the authority of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose word is supposed to be final. The government has tried to paint the opposition and its top presidential candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, as criminals and traitors, a strategy that now becomes more difficult — if not impossible.

“This crack in the clerical establishment, and the fact they are siding with the people and Moussavi, in my view is the most historic crack in the 30 years of the Islamic republic,” said Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University. “Remember, they are going against an election verified and sanctified by Khamenei.”

Meanwhile, another major demonstration may be in the works, as Tehren Bureau explains:

What has become a dominant part of the social landscape is finally being co-opted by the people of Iran. Mourning rituals, once thought of as arcane practices of the second class, are now being used to mobilize the masses.

Over the past month and a half many of these moments have felt historically convenient. Perhaps it’s just that Iran has so many flashpoint dates in its old Islamic, as well as revolutionary history book. Regardless, these anniversaries keep popping up.

The next one, and perhaps most pivotal to the current movement, happens to fall on Thursday of this week: the 18th of Tir (or 9th of July.)

On that day in 1999 students protesting the closing of the reformist newspaper Salaam were attacked in their dormitories in Tehan and Tabriz. Six days of protests ensued, which began with several hundred students and blossomed into thousands of people from all walks of life supporting the demonstrations. They were the biggest display of anti-regime sentiment in the Islamic Republic’s then twenty-year history, and they were put down by the regime with a mandate by the threatened leadership to stop the unrest “at any cost.” Sounds familiar.

The difference between then and now is that ten years of small victories and heavy setbacks for reformers have left them disillusioned, but also hardened and more fearless. I have been in Iran on the 18th of Tir several times over the past eight years, and have seen firsthand that security is always heightened that day

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Through the events of the past month it’s become very clear that deep cracks within the establishment exist, and they are now visible to everyone.

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So far it’s unclear how this 18th of Tir will be marked. I’ve heard from friends still in Tehran that “something big” is in the works, but no one has any details yet. This is partially because they don’t want to broadcast their hand to the security forces, who will undoubtedly be prepared to defeat the crowds. Perhaps more troubling though is that, as with the original 18th of Tir protestors, so many of the current movement’s leadership has been detained or otherwise silenced.