"A...victor that hath lost in gain."
To be sure, the Russian Navy's Northern Fleet has seen better days and is generally in shambles. But this story about the dismantling of the long-capable opponent of our 688's is no reason to fall asleep.
In my opinion it is NOT simply further proof the Russian Navy's deterioration--it's evidence that they're "trimming the fat" and moving on toward future technologies and innovations. The Russians know very well that so long as they maintain a strong submarine fleet they will remain a world power.
If I haven't made you squirm at least a bit yet, then may I remind you of their recent war games with the Chinese, which may not be directly responsible for the latter's aggressive behavior, but it certainly does encourage it. In fact, it may inspire further aspirations and threats.
Meanwhile, our order of battle is shrinking while the number of missions remains the same or in some cases is growing.
In my opinion it is NOT simply further proof the Russian Navy's deterioration--it's evidence that they're "trimming the fat" and moving on toward future technologies and innovations. The Russians know very well that so long as they maintain a strong submarine fleet they will remain a world power.
If I haven't made you squirm at least a bit yet, then may I remind you of their recent war games with the Chinese, which may not be directly responsible for the latter's aggressive behavior, but it certainly does encourage it. In fact, it may inspire further aspirations and threats.
Meanwhile, our order of battle is shrinking while the number of missions remains the same or in some cases is growing.
posted by WillyShake at 8:10 AM
3 Comments:
I really wish I could get excited about the Russian threat, but I honestly can't at this point (at least the tactical side of the house). Yes, they built some decent submarines in the late 80s, but I think that they've lost the ability to mass produce decent nuclear boats. Their Kilos are still a pain, though. As far as the Chinese go, we're still 15 years from having to worry about them; not that we should wait 15 years until we start preparing, but I think their recent "aggressive" moves (sending a Han into Japanese waters) are more of a "testing the waters" type thing; they got their pee-pees slapped, so I think they'll be kinda quiet on the sub front for another 5 years or so before we see them trying that again...
Bubblehead, Well stated and much needed comments--thanks! I didn't mean to sound overly alarmist, though I do admit that the Chinese threat in particular does indeed worry me.
I do want very much to dispel the myth, however, that since the end of Cold War the Russians our are friends. They have their own interests, and often those don't coincide with ours; it makes me nervous, therefore, to see them helping the Chinese.
Thanks again!
--Will
The recent Chinese ambition of developing a capable SSBN fleet based on their new type 094 class boat is what concerns me. That coupled with the possible theft of the W-88 nuclear warhead design at Los Alamos could be come a big headache. Just like Soviet Yankees class boats patrolling off the Atlantic coast in the 70-80s, we could see type 094s patrolling in the eastern Pacific in 2015.
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